The 2027 Social Security COLA is tracking near 3.6%
Estimates for the 2027 cost-of-living adjustment run from 3.2% to 3.6% after July inflation data. SSA announces the confirmed figure on October 14.
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2027 COLA estimate · SSA confirms October 14
Estimates for the 2027 Social Security cost-of-living adjustment currently range from 3.2% to 3.6%, with AARP's analysis pointing to about 3.5%. The COLA is calculated from CPI-W for July, August and September, and SSA is expected to announce the confirmed figure on October 14, 2026.
Estimates for the 2027 cost-of-living adjustment currently sit between 3.2% and 3.6%. AARP’s analysis points to about 3.5%.
For comparison, the 2026 COLA was 2.8%. If the estimates hold, benefits rise faster next year than they did this year.
What it means on your check
Multiply your monthly benefit by the percentage. A few examples at 3.6%:
| Current monthly benefit | Increase at 3.6% | New benefit |
|---|---|---|
| $1,500 | $54 | $1,554 |
| $1,900 | $68 | $1,968 |
| $2,400 | $86 | $2,486 |
Why nobody can confirm it yet
The COLA is not a decision. It is a formula, set in law, using the CPI-W index for July, August and September. Until September’s figure is published, the calculation is incomplete — which is why every number you see right now is an estimate that moves with each inflation release.
Estimates have already drifted down this year: one projection was 3.8% a month before it was 3.6%, as inflation moderated.
The date
SSA is expected to announce the confirmed 2027 COLA on October 14, 2026. The increase applies to benefits payable for January 2027.
One thing to hold alongside it: your Medicare Part B premium is projected to rise at the same time, and it is deducted from your check before you see it.
Questions people ask
When is the number final?
October 14, 2026. It cannot be final earlier, because September CPI-W is part of the formula.
How much is 3.6% on my check?
Multiply your current monthly benefit by 0.036. On a $1,900 check that is about $68 a month.
Looking for the dates themselves?Our sister site keeps the running CPI-W figures behind the estimate.